Currencies in motion: trends and impact on your international trade

Changing currencies, a direct impact on your business

Global trade is undergoing an accelerated transformation, and the currencies that underpin it are changing just as rapidly. Between 2019 and 2025, the euro's share in international payments plunged by 62%, from 34.5% to 13%, according to Statista.

In contrast, the US dollar jumped from 45% to 60%, consolidating its supremacy. These upheavals are not without consequences for European SMEs and ETIs: rising costs, pressures on margins, and the need for strategic adaptation.

What forces are driving these changes? How can businesses respond? This article analyzes monetary trends, their causes, and their practical implications, highlighting solutions such as Keewe, a platform designed to optimize international payments

Major currency trends in global trade

The spectacular erosion of the euro

The euro, once a pillar of global trade, has seen its role collapse. From 34.5% of international payments in 2019, it represented only 13% in 2025. This drop of 62% reflects a loss of competitiveness against the dollar (60%) and lower adoption in new trade corridors.

The continued dominance of the dollar

The American dollar reigns supreme, rising from 45% to 60% in six years. This increase is explained by global dependence on commodities denominated in USD and by American economic policies. However, cracks are emerging: Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policy, relaunched in 2025, could curb this dynamic by provoking trade retaliation and pushing some countries towards alternatives.

The rise of emerging currencies

Other currencies are gaining ground, although modestly:

• Renminbi (CNY) : from 1.2% to 2.7%, driven by Chinese commercial expansion and technological advances (5G, AI).

• Japanese yen (JPY) : from 4% to 5.4%, supported by Japan's economic stability.

• British pound (GBP) : from 4% to 5.1%, taking advantage of post-Brexit resilience.

• Canadian dollar (CAD) : entry into the top 5 at 2.9%, linked to North American trade.

Recent initiatives and perspectives

In Europe, rearmament efforts and investments in technologies (green energies, AI) could reinvigorate the euro in the medium term. In China, technological advances and BRICS agreements are strengthening the potential of the CNY, which could exceed 3% by 2027 if the trend continues. In addition, emerging countries (Africa, Latin America) are diversifying their trade through agreements in local currencies, reducing their dependence on the USD and the EUR.

Why these developments? The causes of a new monetary balance

Geopolitics: a fragmented world

Geopolitics is a major driver of these monetary shifts. Sanctions against Russia and Iran have caused some countries to bypass the dollar, while Trump's tariffs, intensified in 2025, are strengthening the USD in the short term but fueling the initiatives of De-dollarization. The BRICS, for example, are speeding up payments in CNY or rubles.

Diverging monetary policies

Central bank decisions are widening the currency gap. The FED maintains high rates, attracting capital to the dollar. In contrast, the ECB is juggling inflation with massive investments in rearmament, weakening the euro in the short term. In China, the People's Bank is adjusting its policy to support the CNY without excessively devaluing.

Regional blocks and technology

Asia, under Chinese leadership, is promoting the renminbi through trade corridors and technological innovations. In Latin America, Brazil and Argentina are exploring alternatives such as the real or a regional currency. Digitalization also plays a key role: instant payments and digital currencies (CBDCs) facilitate the use of local currencies, reducing traditional intermediaries.

Focus : For European SMEs, this fragmentation complicates international transactions, requiring greater agility and diversification.

Consequences for European companies: managing risks and adapting their strategy

Changing currency risks

Volatility is intensifying for European businesses. With one euro at 13% and one dollar at 60%, single-currency SMEs suffer from increased costs:

• Exporters : a French ETI selling to the US loses competitiveness if its prices are low in euros.

• Importers : commodities in USD (oil, metals) are becoming more expensive, compressing margins.

European rearmament and technology initiatives could reverse this trend, but in the short term, uncertainty dominates.

Why diversify your currencies?

Relying solely on the euro is risky. A multi-currency strategy offers tangible benefits:

• Cost reduction : Paying a Chinese supplier in CNY avoids USD-EUR conversion fees.

• Competitiveness : Trading in JPY or GBP can appeal to customers in Japan or the United Kingdom.

• security : Less exposure to the ups and downs of the EUR/USD.

The rise of the CNY, boosted by Chinese technological advances, is also opening up opportunities in Asia.

Trade finance needs to be rethought

Traditional banks prefer financing in USD or EUR, often with high fees for exotic currencies. However, emerging corridors (Africa, Southeast Asia) require more flexibility. Keewe meets this need by offering payments in CNY, CAD or others at no additional cost, with total transparency. Example: an SME that imports electronic components from China saves 2% on each transaction thanks to Keewe.

Best practices for SMEs

Here are three concrete actions:

1. Foreign exchange coverage : Use tools such as forwards or options to set rates, available via specialized FX management platforms.

2. Modern tools : Keewe optimizes your conversions in real time, even for emerging currencies.

3. Local payments : Use the currency of your partners to reduce costs and strengthen commercial relationships.

Conclusion: Anticipate to better manage currency developments

The evolution of currencies in international trade is not just a cyclical phenomenon: it is a structural transformation that is redefining the rules of the game for European companies.

• The weakening of the euro is forcing SMEs to rethink their exchange rate risk management and to anticipate higher costs on their foreign currency payments.

• The hegemony of the dollar is being questioned, which requires close monitoring of American political and monetary decisions.

• The rise of the yuan and regional blocks offers new opportunities, but also challenges when it comes to payments and FX hedging.

What strategy should we adopt?

• Diversify your currencies: No longer rely solely on the euro or the dollar to secure your transactions.

• Optimize FX payments: Compare offers, avoid hidden margins and use adapted hedging solutions.

• Anticipate fluctuations: Rely on partners capable of offering visibility and tools for managing currency risk.

Chez Keewe, we support companies in the intelligent management of their international payments, with competitive rates and total transparency on FX costs.

In a world where currencies change rapidly, it is time to adopt a strategic approach to secure your payments and optimize your international competitiveness.

Learn how Keewe can turn challenges into opportunities.