Biden is fighting climate change

Two events particularly caught our attention this week: the climate summit organized by American President Joe Biden and which should bring together more than 40 world leaders, and the vote of the Climate and Resilience Law in the National Assembly.

Is the United States back in the climate race?

Taking the opposite view of his predecessor Donald Trump, who withdrew the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement (2015), Joe Biden invited forty heads of state and government to discuss the climate on Thursday 22 and Friday 23 April. The summit is also being held a few months before COP26, scheduled for November in Scotland.

Joe Biden's objective is to restore American credibility on climate issues, while many states are making increasingly ambitious commitments, especially in Europe, and even China, Washington's main rival, recently announced that it is aiming for carbon neutrality by 2060. As a reminder, the actions of China and the United States on the climate issue are closely monitored by citizens and experts, since they represent 28% and 15% of CO2 emissions linked to fossil fuels respectively (other greenhouse gas emissions must also be taken into account), according to data from the International Energy Agency.

The first positive signs from Joe Biden

As soon as he took office, Joe Biden chose to appoint an emissary specially dedicated to the climate issue in the person of John Kerry, former American Secretary of State and chief negotiator of the American delegation during the discussions on the Paris Agreement.

In fact, John Kerry visited his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zenhua, in recent days. Xie Zenhua came out of retirement especially, he who had also served on the side of the Chinese delegation in 2015, to also act as a special climate emissary for the Chinese government. The two men said they wanted to cooperate on climate issues and committed to taking actions “in line with the objectives of the Paris Agreement.”

These statements came a few days before the Chinese President's participation was confirmed.

Towards a strengthening of the United States commitments to reduce emissions?

Under the Obama administration, the United States committed to reducing its emissions by 26% to 28% by 2025 compared to 2005. If Donald Trump had methodically undermined the environmental measures taken by Barack Obama, Joe Biden plans to position his country as a leader in the fight against climate change. In addition to the return to the Paris Agreement, the 46th American President has unveiled in recent weeks a massive investment project in infrastructure worth USD 2,000 billion, a significant part of which is intended for ecological transition (USD 170 billion for electric vehicles, USD 100 billion for electric vehicles, USD 100 billion for electrical networks, etc.).

Finally, Joe Biden could announce at this summit an ambitious goal of reducing emissions by 50% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. This effort is all the more demanding since the United States economy is very dependent on fossil fuels, as illustrated by its status as the world's largest oil producer in recent years.

The Climate and Resilience Law voted in the National Assembly

Another current topic, the Climate and Resilience Law was voted on Saturday, April 17, at the National Assembly. Among the emblematic measures, we note the creation of an offence of ecocide, which will punish “serious and lasting” damage caused to the environment over a prolonged period, or the end of certain domestic air connections in the event of an alternative train lasting less than 2.5 hours (the Citizens' Climate Convention recommended a ban in the event of an alternative lasting less than 4 hours, eliminating an even greater part of French domestic connections).

Another highlight, the rental of homes considered to be “thermal sieves” - those in categories F and G - will be prohibited from 2028, and properties classified E will also be affected from 2034.

The Senate is expected to examine the text in June before a very likely return to the Assembly for the final vote.

The opinion of the High Council for Climate

Beyond the content of this law, we looked at the opinion of the High Council for Climate* (HCC), an independent and consultative body placed under the Prime Minister, which offers methodological insight into the assessment of the “climate” impact of this law. In the years to come, the HCC recommendations could inspire a new analytical framework for public authorities.

Progress in impact assessment despite obvious limitations

While recognizing progress in the impact study of this Climate and Resilience Law (reference to the National Low Carbon Strategy** - SNBC, efforts to quantify emissions measures), the HCC points out several limitations and recommends in particular the following measures:

• improve the transparency of the methodologies and hypotheses used for the evaluation of the impacts of the measures contained in the law,
• assess quantitatively and qualitatively the impact of the bill on SNBC's key indicators and specify how it positions itself with respect to the carbon budgets defined for the coming years (up to 2033),
• monitor the implementation of measures, provide for possible adjustment mechanisms and an evaluation of the results obtained.

In the perspective of a significant reduction in GHG emissions, where the regulatory framework is strengthened, with particular emphasis on emissions accounting and publication, it is conceivable that government decisions and legislative texts will be increasingly examined in terms of their climate impact.

Towards an increased assessment of the climate impact of legal texts

In this context, a framework for reading complementary to government action seems to be emerging, including in particular the definition of reference climate indicators and the evaluation. A prima facie and a posteriori the contribution of public decisions - climate-related or not - to the goals of reducing GHG emissions. While the climate matrix is not yet fully integrated into decision-making and control processes, the Climate and Resilience Law is moving in this direction.

Bonus

As a bonus: The European Heads of State validated the upward revision of the ambitions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the European Union, which was initiated at the end of 2020 by the MEPs. This decision brings the emission reduction target to 55% compared to the 1990 level, which is better than the 40% targeted so far. In addition, more than fifty regulatory texts and directives will be amended in the coming months to align the EU's legislative framework with these renewed ambitions.