Złoty PLN throughout 2025 and CEE forecast for 2026

The year 2025 was marked by a strengthening Polish Zloty relative to the Euro. Throughout the year, the Euro dropped by 1.04% against the PLN. Looking at the PLN's value, the currency reached its highest point at 0.2416 EUR on February 26, 2025, and its lowest point at 0.2328 EUR on April 7, with an average value of 0.2357 EUR over the period.

As you can probably tell from the graph below, let alone the march peak, Złoty's resilience throughout 2025 was quite impressive and sets the stage for the coming year.

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The global picture in Central and Eastern Europe FX

The overall forecast for the Euro/Zloty exchange rate is neutral.
Analysts expect the rate to remain stable, hovering near the current 4.24 spot rate.

The currencies of the Central and Eastern European region (the Czech Koruna, Hungarian Forint, and Polish Zloty) have performed well this year. This rally was largely due to the restrictive approach of their central banks, which kept interest rates high despite market expectations to ease sooner.

PLN the three Rs: Recovered, Resilient, Reliable

Why the Zloty is expected to be solid in 2026

Despite regional risks, the Zloty is projected to maintain its strength, gain even some ground, while possibly losing it slightly towards the end of the year. Let’s understand why tho.

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Solid macroeconomic fundamentals, which should shield the currency from significant depreciation, seem to play the major part in this.

Other key factors supporting the Zloty include Poland's outperformance in GDP growth compared to the Eurozone. EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) expects the Polish economy to grow by 3 per cent in 2026, while inflation lowing of 2,8 per cent.
Plus, substantial inflows of European funds are expected from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and Security Action for Europe programs in 2026 and 2027.
Targeted activity by the state bank in the FX market, alongside a more favorable outlook for the Eurozone economy driven by German fiscal push, reinforces the currency's stability.

It must be noted, however, that market efficiency has already neutralized much of this euphoria. The positive drivers have already made their move and possibly exhausted Zloty’s momentum for now.

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Source: EUR to PLN Yearly Predictions: Long-Term Forecasts for 2026. CoinCodex

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In 2026, the exchange rate between the Euro and the Polish Złoty is anticipated to range between zł 4.15 and zł 4.29, leading to an average annualised price of zł 4.18. Based on data from November 12, 2025 at 16:24, the general EUR/PLN price prediction sentiment is bearish , with 4 technical analysis indicators signaling bullish signals, and 22 signaling bearish signals.

Domestic and geopolitical risks

In Poland, general elections are not due until 2027, but after the opposition’s victory in the presidential election, a consolidation of public finances looks unlikely. The National Bank of Poland may need to act swiftly, relying on a stronger złoty to help contain inflation. Conversely, a potential fiscal cliff could push the currency in the opposite direction.

The biggest threats to the złoty are primarily domestic and geopolitical. Domestically, a difficult "cohabitation" between the president and the government may hinder economic reforms, especially after two rating agencies downgraded Poland’s credit outlook to negative, due to insufficient fiscal adjustment. Furthermore, the 2027 parliamentary elections pose a risk, as they could trigger either a populist fiscal stimulus, an unexpected shift in central bank policy, or a change of the ruling party.

On the geopolitical front, the ongoing trade war and the threat it poses to the German economy, coupled with any potential escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, remain significant headwinds for the Polish currency.

EUR/PLN forecast: summing up

The Euro/Zloty exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 4.18 and 4.29 in the near term. While the Zloty may initially strengthen toward the lower bound (4.20), it is likely to lose some ground in 2026. This expected softening is mainly due to the carry trade becoming less attractive relative to rates in the Eurozone and other emerging markets.

As elections will knock on Poland’s door, fiscal risk is supposed to rise right ahead. This negative trend would be reinforced if the anticipated revival of the European economy is delayed or proves to be short-lived.

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