2026, the year to come: forex and climate on the agenda

The year 2026 promises to be an open-air lab where international commerce dynamics and climate emergencies are no independent variables, but two sides of the same geopolitical coin. The global narrative is now dictated by an aggressive return to American protectionism and a restructuring of financial peaks, with repercussions that are transforming the foreign exchange market into a thermodynamic battlefield with palpable tensions, including environmental ones.

January 2026

Taxes, always taxes

At the heart of this monetary and climate storm is playing out the legal battle over Donald Trump's universal tariffs. The possibility of the Supreme Court limiting the presidential power to impose sweeping tariffs is creating unprecedented volatility. If Trump wins, a structural strengthening of the dollar will occur, driven by a forced improvement in the trade balance, but at a high price for emerging market currencies.

However, the risk of a fiscal crisis linked to the refund of taxes already collected (as seen in the Costco case) is hanging over the greenback like the sword of Damocles. Donald Trump himself called the situation a complete mess, “We are screwed” he said in January on Truth Social, because the administration doesn't have a simple mechanism for returning such amounts without digging a gaping hole in the federal budget.

A sudden devaluation of the USD is therefore still possible if investors perceive a relaxation of fiscal discipline in Washington.

At the same time, the American cleantech sector is particularly weakened by tariffs. It remains vulnerable to a downturn that would compromise the country's progress in low-carbon technologies and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, as well as the leadership acquired in recent years in this fast-growing industry. Let's also remember that, in 2020, during Trump's first term, the United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement for the first time, which weakened international climate cooperation. The second abandonment of the agreements, which had officially been in force since January 2026, took place in 2025. Although this was not a direct result of tariffs, protectionist policies form part of a broader trend of withdrawing from global commitments and reducing pressure to implement ambitious climate measures.

Old continents, new shields

Europe is caught in a monetary stranglehold. Trump's strategy of Europeanize the Ukrainian conflict, by transferring the financial burden to NATO partners, is draining liquidity from the Old Continent.

The euro is struggling to maintain parity with the dollar. Meanwhile, European countries are being forced to divert funds originally earmarked for other purposes, including the challenges of ecological transition, towards military spending and rearmament. It is no coincidence that, as climate impacts become more obvious and more expensive, over the last 18 months, we have seen a gradual and almost invisible retreat in some of the central pillars of the European Green Deal. Not that the planet was explicitly pilloried, but a series of small setbacks and delays followed one another without making too much noise, halting halfway through a transformation that remains indispensable.

For example, after the withdrawal of the SUR regulation in 2024, the European Commission proposed in 2025, via the package Omnibus, the unlimited extension of authorizations for pesticides and biocides, eliminating mandatory periodic reviews.

The latest turnaround? The abandonment of the ban on selling new combustion vehicles by 2035. The Commission has backed down, aiming instead for a 90% reduction in emissions, at a time when a quarter of the world's cars are already electric.

Venezuela and the petrodollar 2.0

The American government's ambition is becoming clearer: to maximise its stranglehold on as many oil reserves as possible and expand the use of the abundant fossil fuels in the United States. The fall of Maduro in January and the alignment of Caracas with Washington restore the American energy hegemony that supports the dollar. Control of Venezuelan reserves allows the United States to weigh on global energy costs, offering a competitive advantage to its national industry, at the expense of an appalling environmental record.

February 2026

The Great North

The diplomatic crisis between the United States and Denmark concerning the proposed purchase of Greenland introduces a new variable on the foreign exchange market.

In Trump's heart only two “Ms” really count. And no, unsurprisingly, neither of them is for Melania; they stand for military and mining. These two strategic priorities lie at the core of America's claims on Greenland.

The accelerated melting of the ice sheet is exposing rare earth deposits essential to AI, to electric car batteries, to the supremacy of cleantech, to the smartphone industry... and the list goes on. The link here is obviously brutal. Global warming is creating profit opportunities that fuel speculation in the North's resources. European resistance to this conquest, in addition, accentuates the existing tensions within the Atlantic bloc.

Kevin Warsh and the end of gold as a safe haven?

The appointment of hawk Kevin Warsh at the head of the Federal Reserve, after a violent institutional conflict with Jerome Powell, upset the hierarchy of security assets. The market reacted with a drastic fall in gold and silver.

Investors, seeing Warsh as an inflation ally, bet on a strong dollar and high interest rates. But in reality, the end of the Fed's independence, symbolized by the Justice Department's investigations against Powell, is undermining confidence in the dollar as a safe haven currency, as does Warsh's recent apparent support for Trumpian policies, which, indeed, advocate for low interest rates.

Although nothing has been decided yet (as confirmation is still pending from the Senate), the fall in gold and silver prices, as well as the fall in stock markets, suggest that investors consider rate cuts unlikely under the Warsh era, with stability remaining the sine qua non condition for any long-term investment.

February - March 2026

The resistance of green cities

Faced with these macroeconomic tensions, France is preparing the 2026 municipal elections with a different perspective supported by its ecological town halls. While the powers are fighting for resources, cities like Lyon or Bordeaux are staying the course. In Lyon, CO2 emissions have fallen by 36% in six years and nitrogen dioxide pollution has been virtually eliminated. By rejecting the logic of unlimited growth, these administrations have transformed neighborhoods like Part-Dieu, preventing them from becoming concrete heat islands.

The year 2026 will determine whether this local resistance, which is localized and scattered, can serve as a model or whether it will remain an exception in a world dominated by resource conflicts and climate change.